Marcos Buckeridge (msbuck@usp.br)
On May 23rd, New Scientist released an interview I gave to Jan Rocha in which I proposed that Brazil can produce bioethanol at the same time as it protects the environment, especially biodiversity.
If you go to the site of New Scientist, there are several comments, some very interesting because they reflect the opinion of (supposedly) laymen who are interested in science.
What is quite interesting is that a few comments are from people worried with a possible interference of biofuel crops in food production.
This is indeed legitimate if we consider Europe and to a certain extent the US, but not Brazil or Africa.
One of the comments says that Brazilians should worry about the lack of food in Africa instead. This is a very important issue, of course, but its relationship with bioenergy probably will have more benefits than damage. The food problem in Africa is very complex and has connections with politics, economy and agricultural technology, to name but a few. Looking at it form the viewpoint of bioenergy versus food, there is simply not enough bioenergy market in the planet, at least up to 2015-2020, that could support the production of bioenergy crops in Africa so that it could influence food production there. Even if it does, and profits are high, Africans could benefit a lot from that and then invest their profit to improve their food technology, therefore increasing food production and quality. Thus, bioenergy crops in Africa, if well managed from the strategic point of view, could be quite beneficial instead!
In the case of Brazil, the current production of bioethanol does not compromise food production at all, as we are using less than 1% of the agriculturally usable land area in the whole country. Furthermore, data gathered by planners of the Faculty of Administration (FEA-USP), working in collaboration with this institute, forecasts that the exports of ethanol needed for 2017 will be ca. 8.3 billion of litres (bl). Considering the actual internal demand, which according to UNICA is 29.7 bl and for 2015/16 will be of 46.9 bl, the impact on land area expansion in Brazil due to sugarcane is likely to be very mild. Furthermore, one has to remember that we are constantly producing new varieties and there are several initiatives in Brazil (NIST-Biothanol is one of them, along with the Centre of Science and Technology of Ethanol – CTBE - in Campinas, BIOEN-FAPESP and EMBRAPA Agroenergy in Brasilia) who are focused on improving productivity of sugarcane. Nowadays the average productivity in Brazil is around 100 tons per ha per year and may reach near 250 in the next 10 years, and I am being conservative with these numbers.
Two factors will strongly influence the productivity in the near future: 1) genetic improvement and 2) effects of the global climatic change.
In the first case, genetic improvement of sugarcane will use classical and modern molecular biology to produce varieties that can grow faster and produce more biomass that can be used for ethanol production with technologies of the first and second generations.
In the second, it is already known that sugarcane will grow faster and produce more biomass with the elevation of atmospheric CO2 concentration. This is data produced by our group and published last year. The literature is in de Souza et al. (2008).
My point here is that the increase in productivity, when considered together with the demand of ethanol in the same period, will not lead to a great expansion in area for biofuel crops in Brazil. Therefore, there can be not be impact on food production here, even if Brazil wanted to do that!